Predicting The Flop Of The Summer

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We’re two weeks away from Iron Man 3, a guaranteed success, kicking off the summer box office. I’m very excited. You? I mean, after the very unimpressive first quarter we’ve had, I’m ready to be excited about going to the movies again. And in the wake of this disastrous week, we need it.

There are flops every year, of course, it’s the way Hollywood works. Sometimes they’re pre-mediated (John Carter) and sometimes unexpected (Green Lantern). No one wants a flop, but sometimes things just don’t click. As mentioned above, there are some garuntees this summer. Iron Man 3, Star Trek, Fast Six, The Heat, Kick-Ass 2 (I’ll argue this one) and Man of Steel are all garunteed successes. If you asked me this four months ago, I would have pegged MoS to flop, but with that new trailer and the buzz surrounding it, it should actually do quite well. I also think The Great Gatsby will do quite well. Again, if you had asked me this months ago, I would’ve picked it as my #1 flop of the summer, but the marketing has been spectacular at this point and I think it’s going to click with all demos.

So, what will the flops of the summer be? World War Z seems like the most obvious choice but I’m not sure yet. The newer trailers aren’t the worst and the cover story in EW last month seemed to hold some promise, in that the reshoots and all the problems it went through will be beneficial. But who knows?

My two picks I feel very confident in are The Lone Ranger and After Earth. I don’t think either looks very good or interesting and if this were 2002, Smith and Depp could get away with these type of movies but this is 2012 and audiences are fickle and have tired of their movie stardom. After Earth, Oblivion and The Lone Ranger are all tests for the star power of Smith, Cruis and Depp. I can’t wait to see how they perform.

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